Evolutionary Quantitative Genetics Workshop

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Lecture 3-4: The paradox of predictability

Fabio A. Machado

An orthodox understanding of evolutionary theory strongly suggests that intraspecific constraints, specially those given by quantitative genetics parameters (microevolution), should not influcence long term outcomes (macroevolution). Despite this, some predictions of microevolutionary theory seams to play out on macroevolutionary timescales, in a prattern recently dubbed the “Paradox of Predictability”. In this lecture we discuss this paradox and some of the proposed explanations for it.